Box Office - Summer 2009

5/1/09 - Despite the recession and a dropoff in the DVD sales that have long propped up the studios, Hollywood might be on track for its best year ever at the box office.

"X-Men Origins: Wolverine," is likely to take in over $100 million opening weekend, based on various studio tracking estimates.

That would give the fourth installment in the franchise -- released by News Corp.'s Twentieth Century Fox -- the biggest opening of the year so far. Its projected weekend tally would easily exceed the current record holder for 2009, "Fast & Furious," which took in almost $71 million in its first weekend in theaters.

Despite a continuing slump in DVD sales and increasingly elusive movie-financing deals, box-office results this year have defied gravity. Attendance so far this year is up 15.6% from a year earlier, while revenues, at $3 billion, are up 17.4%.

The Hollywood studios are banking on familiar, big-budget fare such as "Wolverine" -- which cost an estimated $135 million to make, plus marketing costs -- to continue that winning streak. If the payoff isn't big, studios likely would need to slash production slates further than they already have, or implement additional layoffs and cost cuts.

The period between May 1 and Labor day typically accounts for about 40% of annual box-office revenue, he adds.

The recession appears to be helping boost box-office receipts, as consumers trade down from more expensive activities, like concerts and sports events.

About 50 wide-release movies are opening between May and August this year, the same number as last summer and up from 41 five years prior.

The rest of May sees an onslaught of franchise material, including "Angels & Demons," the follow-up to 2006's blockbuster "The Da Vinci Code," from Sony Corp.'s Sony Pictures. From Viacom Inc.'s Paramount Pictures there will be "Star Trek," which cost $130 million to $150 million to make. The nearly $200 million "Terminator Salvation" being released by Time Warner Inc.'s Warner Bros. extends the long-running "Terminator" franchise. Fox is hoping "Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian" will lure back the audience that helped the original 2006 movie take in almost $575 million world-wide.

Beyond May, certified franchise hits like the second, $200 million "Transformers," the latest Harry Potter film, and the third animated "Ice Age" will land in theaters before Labor Day.